Visual attention is highly fragmented during mobile interactions but the erratic nature of attention shifts currently limits attentive user interfaces to adapt after the fact, i.e. after shifts have already happened. We instead study attention forecasting – the challenging task of predicting users’ gaze behavior (overt visual attention) in the near future. We present a novel long-term dataset of everyday mobile phone interactions, continuously recorded from 20 participants engaged in common activities on a university campus over 4.5 hours each (more than 90 hours in total). We propose a proof-of-concept method that uses device-integrated sensors and body-worn cameras to encode rich information on device usage and users’ visual scene. We demonstrate that our method can forecast bidirectional attention shifts and whether the primary attentional focus is on the handheld mobile device. We study the impact of different feature sets on performance and discuss the significant potential but also remaining challenges of forecasting user attention during mobile interactions.

While first-generation mobile gaze interfaces required special-purpose hardware, recent advances in computational gaze estimation and the availability of sensor-rich and powerful devices is finally fulfilling the promise of pervasive eye tracking and eye-based interaction on off-the-shelf mobile devices. This work provides the first holistic view on the past, present, and future of eye tracking on handheld mobile devices. To this end, we discuss how research developed from building hardware prototypes, to accurate gaze estimation on unmodified smartphones and tablets. We then discuss implications by laying out 1) novel opportunities, which include pervasive advertising and conducting in-the-wild eye tracking studies on handhelds, as well as 2) new challenges that require further research, such as the visibility of the user's eyes, lighting conditions, and privacy implications. We discuss how these developments shape MobileHCI research in the future, possibly the ``next 20 years'', as the overarching theme of MobileHCI 2018 suggests.